Yale University keynote

Giving Yale University keynote Monday ---operationalizing fuzzy “luck” by examining the market, synergy, valuation and a Caltech Fly.

Caltrans looks like Teldar Paper

Caltran’s organizational structure looks like Teldar Paper http://www.dot.ca.gov/orgchart/departmentalorgchart.pdf

United States government was completely debt free

Under Andrew Jackson, the United States government was completely debt free for the first and only time in history.

California IOU

Small business needs the most help but will be hurt most by the government of the world's eighth-largest economy printing IOUs.

National and international unemployment, The world may not be so flat

Historical data indicates, in times of severe economic correction, U.S. housing starts and unemployment are inversely correlated meaning (begin cycle) unemployment increases significantly after a severe decrease in housing starts and unemployment peaks and decreases after an increase in housing starts (end cycle). The thesis holds for Canada, the first of G8s that Kurt Christofferson is helping me analyze. With all of the factors contributing to national and international unemployment, what if the country by country housing market represents the most significant correlation? That might mean the world is not so flat!

Darla Fisher in Marin Magazine

This is a nice piece about my wife Darla in Marin Magazine http://www.marinmagazine.com/Marin-Magazine/July-2009/Tiburon/

Yale speech

I have to be in California July 6th so Yale speech changed to Webcast.

Start-up math

My new sandhill.com blog post is http://bit.ly/DGFiu

The length of time that a venture-backed company goes from founding to IPO is now 8.6 years, which hit a 27-year high in 2007. In considering the value of a company, you must examine the investors' returns as a function of time and value, not just value. $1.00 invested for 8.6 years must become $2.30 just to get an approximate 10% compounded return to give a nominal profit for investors. $1.00 must become $4.80 after 8.6 years for a compounded 20% return that makes a company profitable to most venture capitalists.

Why $5M on $9M pre-money series A is the last round entrepreneurs will ever close

Founders typically receive 80% ownership in the company leaving 20% for employees. F = 0.80 (Founders’ latest % ownership). L = 0.357 (Outside investor’s % ownership calculated as $5M divided by $14M post-money valuation). The dilution formula is 0.80 * (1 – 0.357) = 0.80 * 0.643 = 51.4%

Founding entrepreneurs raising $5M on a $9M pre-money series A dilute ownership to 51.4% of the company. If they raise another dime, they lose majority control (including the ability to approve an acquisition) that technically means they’re working for someone else.

Right kind of bailout

Washington Post: The Energy Department announced this morning that it would lend Ford $5.9 billion to retool plants in five states for fuel-efficient vehicles. The department also awarded Nissan $1.6 billion and Tesla Motors $465 million to ramp up electric car production.

Operationalization of timing

Operationalization is the process of defining a fuzzy concept so as to make the concept measurable in form of variables consisting of specific observations. Operationalizing “timing” is becoming more interesting.

Start-up financing and new housing starts

We accept correlation does not imply causation. The data suggests there is a correlation between the amount of start-up financing and management’s IRR. Other data suggests there is an inverse correlation between national new housing starts and unemployment. I believe there is a third variable strengthening the correlations of both pairs of variables therefore increasing the likelihood of causation. Developing…

Yale keynote July 6th

Speaking at Yale July 6th (Summer Fellowship program) including bit of relating start-up forecasting to economic forecasting.

NKorea ship

3:14 PM Jun 14th @JonBFisher wondering if we can see anything 36.0313N 131.4844E http://bit.ly/aZk9C

4:48 PM June 18th @JonBFisher now we can http://tinyurl.com/lq7hel

On the ground economic indicator

My wife owns two clothing boutiques in Tiburon, CA (Koze and Koze Beginnings) and travels to various “markets” to purchase inventory. She confirmed the most poorly attended market she could remember was last August (’08) meaning fewer of her colleagues attended that market to buy inventory than in the last 15 years. These markets run more or less quarterly and store owners purchase inventory to be used 1 season in advance (i.e. summer purchase for fall inventory).

1 year later, tonight, she returned from the 2nd most poorly attended market. Are many of these small businesses not buying and/or dying? Is this a leading or lagging on the ground indicator? Stay tuned…

Zero capital-gains tax

Where is Obama's campaign proposal to offer zero capital-gains tax to founders/original investors when companies are sold?

Worst of unemployment may be over

Housing starts up 17% April-May ’09 and, if this is a bottom, unemployment will peak at about 10.4% falling to 8% in 2-3 quarters.

Market is down because of China

on NPR commenting China decreased its holdings for first time in 1 year and that's reason market is down http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Pay per view in Tiburon

Better than cable in my backyard (Tiburon, CA)

These kids seem drunk, went beyond marker and are now stuck. They also scared the geese that is unforgivable.

East Asia

wondering if we can see anything at 36.0313N 131.4844E here http://bit.ly/aZk9C

VICE PRES. BIDEN on Meet The Press

June 14, 2009 Meet The Press:

MR. GREGORY: Right. But the, but this package was sold on the premise that it would in fact keep unemployment at 8 percent. It's exceeded that...
VICE PRES. BIDEN: The economy was worse off when we made the assessment than anyone thought it was http://tinyurl.com/m6gwlh

April 03, 2009 Wall Street and Technology:

GREG MACSWEENEY: A little more than 11 months ago (May 29, to be exact) I wrote a blog that called for 9 percent unemployment by April 2009, when the official numbers are reported in early May of this year. At the time, the forecast received some criticism — mostly from people in denial about the severity and depth of the financial crisis. Well, it looks like 9 percent national unemployment is a reality, but if you read on, there is good news to report as well. The forecast, based on commentary and analysis from University of San Francisco business professor Jon Fisher, tracked the correlation between decreases in housing starts and rising unemployment. Fisher (and it was all Fisher’s analysis, I’m just the messenger) tracked data back to 1959 and found that as housing starts fall, unemployment rises shortly thereafter. It’s an amazingly simple correlation, but so far has proved to be dead-on accurate http://tinyurl.com/n3mmue

Fallacy Of Composition

Sowell: A baseball fan at a ballpark can see the game better by standing up but, if all the fans stand up, they will not all see better. Many economic policies involve this fallacy, as politicians come to the aid of some group, industry, state or other special interest, representing the benefits to them as if they were net benefits to society, rather than essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul.

EV1 and Prius

Back in 1997, General Motors developed and marketed an electric car dubbed the EV1. At the same time, Toyota introduced the Prius, a combination gasoline-electric hybrid car. By 2003, General Motors had cancelled the EV1 despite growing demand and interest. In comparison, Toyota continued to improve on its hybrid engine technology to the point where the Prius has become the most popular alternate energy vehicle in the world.

Both Toyota and General Motors spent millions of dollars developing their technology, but General Motor’s EV1 struggled with short endurance because of the limited amount of charge its batteries could hold, as Toyota’s Prius simply advanced technology just a little bit to achieve the market success and profitability that eluded General Motors.

R&D in a tough economy

did this piece with Walden University “Research and Development in a Tough Economy” http://tinyurl.com/mnx2o5

Anyone can be an entrepreneur

Colonel Sanders became an entrepreneur at the age of 65 when he started Kentucky Fried Chicken. Michael Dell formed PC Limited (the predecessor to Dell Computers) from his dormitory at the University of Texas in Austin when he was only 19. Julie Aigner-Clark started the Baby Einstein Company from her suburban home in Denver, Colorado. Because entrepreneurs can make their own rules, they’re not limited by age, race, sex, location, educational background, or public policy response.

Twitter

Thanks 2^8 of you to care enough to follow the rants http://twitter.com/JonBFisher

Google Syncs With Microsoft Office

This may enable start-up #4!

Commonwealth Club of California

I will be relating start-up forecasting to economic forecasting shortly https://tickets.commonwealthclub.org/open.asp?show=1288

Start-up

Filed some provisional patent applications today. Start-up #4?

S&P 500 P/E 33

(1977-1982) average S&P 500 P/E Ratio 8.27 (1947-1951) 7.78, (1940-1942) 9.01, Today 33.0

GM is still trading

Five minutes of what I think about GM and the sector this AM http://tinyurl.com/pfg43d

Success test

In 2005, when a record 16.9M cars were sold in the U.S. fueled by $1T in mortgage equity withdrawals, GM lost $10.6B. Shouldn’t there be a success test applied to the straightforward businesses like autos to see if they make sense in optimal conditions versus a stress test applied to banking to see if they can withstand once in a lifetime crisis?

GM

There are various techniques of restructuring that are familiar in the business world, none of which are being used by the government http://tinyurl.com/cxp9ox

Housing starts and unemployment

3 biggest housing starts declines (72-75),(78-81),(05-09) resulted in V shaped recovery followed by unemployment cap http://zimor.com/link/23

Juxtaposition of bailout and suffering

I have said many times bailouts will be seen as the worst of policy response http://tinyurl.com/pjvhx8 all the more egregious when we so casually let our citizens fail. Auto manufacturers are now taking more bailout than the largest banks (GM proposal is $50B and counting) while the California administration, to close a $21 billion deficit, wants to eliminate a welfare-to-work program that provides more than 500,000 families, saving $1.3 billion but forgoing $4.2 billion in federal matching funds. Schwarzenegger also seeks to cut health care coverage for nearly 1 million low-income children under the Healthy Families program, saving about $250 million for the year. For the state's students, he wants to phase out a college aid program and reduce $335 million in funding for the University of California and California State University systems.

Teahupoo

My LLC, Teahupoo, named after the fiercest wave on earth http://tinyurl.com/odbgpb

兵不厭詐。

兵不厭詐。

Regulators seized BankUnited

Regulators seized BankUnited-sold to private equity as I recommended in this CBS piece a few months ago http://cbs5.com/video/?id=46483@kpix.dayport.com

Too big to fail

My “too big to fail is far worse than axis of evil” comment was edited from national broadcast that just played...

University of San Francisco

On campus 28th that will be my last USF event for awhile and wanted to give a shout out to my colleague and friend Dr. Mark Cannice http://www.usfca.edu/sobam/nvc/pub/svvcindex.html

OpenTable IPO

OpenTable.com is real so let’s hope it goes well tomorrow so a cleantech co gets out before a web 2.0 co explodes http://online.wsj.com/video/slowdown-hits-silicon-valley/687E9973-5165-4071-BB43-528DB760F695.html

EO webcasts, fax machine and rule of 72

Enjoyed working with some talented entrepreneurs on EO webcasts, please do not forget:

Back in 1843, a Scottish inventor named Alexander Bain, patented a revolutionary new communication medium capable of transmitting images across distances. Nobody bought the product. In 1851, Frederick Bakewell made several improvements to Bain’s invention, and still nobody bought the product, despite its clear application and obvious convenience. In 1861, Giovlanni Caselli sold the first machine based on this new communication medium, years before Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone - yet sales failed to take off. In 1924, Richard H. Ranger demonstrated the usefulness of this 80-year old invention by sending a photograph of President Calvin Coolidge from New York to London. Sales of this invention finally began, although they were often restricted to transmitting weather charts. In an effort to improve the usefulness of this invention, Herbert E. Ives modified this device to transmit colors as well as black and white images.

It wasn’t until the mid 1980s, nearly 140 years later, that the world finally embraced this new communication medium, originally known as a wireless photoradiogram, but now referred to as the fax machine.

You may have a great idea but investors can get 2X in 9 years at 8% (rule of 72).

Great Blue Heron

I snapped a great picture from my home office:

Another $100B

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Better than Blue Diamond

And they grow in our backyard

Truth on Marketplace and NPR

On Feb 17 Marketplace / NPR told the truth as usual this time regarding Chrysler and GM. It's sad but necessary. Additionally, we must go through this process with some of the big banks.

Either way, University of San Francisco professor Jon Fisher doubts GM or Chrysler can become profitable:

Jon Fisher: I think the only way to truly restructure these companies is to protect them in bankruptcy and fundamentally realign cost structures.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/02/17/gm_deadline/

Kepler's evening

I met some nice folks at my Kepler's speech. The 2008 documentary Paperback Dreams chronicles Kepler's and now defunct Cody's Books in Berkeley, CA.

Small Business Podcast interview

http://www.smallbusinesspodcast.com/programs/transcripts/2009-05-11_Strategic-Entrepreneurism.html

Is the worst over?

In the mid 70s, early 80s, early 90s we experienced a V shaped housing start recovery closely followed by a cap in unemployment. So, consider, if we have experienced a bottom in housing starts we might have experienced an economic bottom. Intuitively, one might think more people losing their jobs means more people losing their homes means more impact to new construction but, actually, it’s an inverse correlation historically that is pretty striking. Indeed, all the recessions in these periods were marked by a dramatic declines in new housing starts (indicating systemic damage to the economy) followed by spiking unemployment that is a lagging indicator. Then, when housing starts recovered, employment recovered. A plot of the 2008-2009 new housing starts with unemployment cycle looks almost identical to 1974-1975 http://www.wallstreetandtech.com/blog/archives/2009/04/unemployment_ma.html

A different kind of good to great

I think it’s important entrepreneurs try to make an impact and perhaps the path of least resistance is making sure your good company winds up under the umbrella of a great company http://www.oracle.com/pls/ebn/swf_viewer.load?p_shows_id=7350389&p_referred=0&p_width=800&p_height=600

Business Leadership Council, Kepler's

speaking at Business Leadership Council / Kepler's monday http://bit.ly/WbP15

From USA Today's Del Jones

Unemployment/housing starts have precise correlationback to 1959 http://bit.ly/lu8ju says @JonBFisher, author of Strategic Entrepreneurism http://twitter.com/jonesdel

Don't stress bad bank bought by good bank

said on NBC tonight "worst case is your bad bank bought by good bank" so let's not stress about stress test that is meaningless anyway..

Grow! Awards @ Computer History Museum

Look for Strategic Entrepreneurism book at Grow! Awards, Computer History Museum tonight!

@ Hewlett Packard

I will be lecturing about unemployment forecast at Hewlett Packard May 28th.

Speaking early May

I'm speaking at Fundraising Day 2009, SF (Monday), my book in the bag for Grow! Awards (Tuesday) and at Kepler's Menlo Park (11th)

Wally Wang's ComputerEdge

Nice post about Strategic Entrepreneurism by Wally Wang / ComputerEdge, San Diego http://webserver.computoredge.com/online.mvc

Strategic Entrepreneurism on Amazon's Kindle

Strategic Entrepreneurism is finally on Amazon's Kindle http://tinyurl.com/c6mjvp

From Daily Candy "Koze Beginnings"

Koze Beginnings Opens!
What: Waterfront boutique spawns a store next door, offering togs from the likes of Splendid, Minnie Rose, and Michael Stars, plus artisan-made gifts for moms and minis.
Why: Make waves.
When: Opens Sat., 10 a.m.
Where: 18 Main St., nr. Tiburon Blvd., Tiburon (415-435-1916).

Identity crisis in the digital world

According to Dhruv Singhal, Oracle India's director for Sales Consulting -Oracle Fusion Middleware, it's very crucial for enterprises, organizations and financial institutions to retain customers' confidence against online frauds and crimes on the Internet.

Singhal suggests that using Oracle Virtual Authenticator and Oracle Adaptive Authentication Manager (OAAM), user identity can be protected and also helps to block unauthorized access, externally as well as internally in any organizations.

http://www.ciol.com/Enterprise/News-Reports/Identity-crisis-in-the-digital-world/17409118565/0/

Sandhill.com and Tiburon Belvedere Chamber of Commerce

Blogging for Sandhill.com http://www.sandhill.com/opinion/daily_blog.php?id=63 and the Tiburon Belvedere Chamber of Commerce http://tiburonchamber.wordpress.com/tag/jon-fisher/

RSA Conference 2009

RSA Conference 2009: Booth #1125

Cooperative Elements: A demonstration of Identity Federation and Single Sign On (SSO) through open standards support between Juniper Networks Secure Access SSL VPN Series appliances and Oracle Adaptive Access Manager (OAAM).

Bank insolvency and housing

If a bank is not insolvent now, what delta in its overall assets yields insolvency? Given another new low in housing starts today, price stability may be further out of reach further deteriorating the banks.

Fruit from Yale University book signing

Very much enjoyed book signing at Yale last year http://newhavenadvocate.com/event_detail.cfm?eid=20010 and just received word one of the students may be exiting successful merger that will be fun to report!

Strategic Entrepreneurism Trademark

Looks like I was just officially awarded a "Strategic Entrepreneurism" trademark.

NewsHour With Jim Lehrer Silicon Valley

From NewsHour With Jim Lehrer "Silicon Valley Navigates Changing Economic Landscape" (October 9, 2008):

SPENCER MICHELS: The concept that the gloomy economic news may not hit Silicon Valley hard is fairly widespread. Despite drops in high-tech stocks, that's still what many Valley spokesmen are saying publicly.

JON FISHER, University of San Francisco: I think they're delusional.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec08/siliconvalley_10-09.html

And then from San Jose Mercury News today:

2008 the worst year for Silicon Valley 150 since 2001

http://www.mercurynews.com/businessheadlines/ci_12101093

THE GOOD NEWS is Silicon Valley, like unemployment, is a lagging indicator this time..

2008 the worst year for Silicon Valley 150 since 2001

From Mercury News: Brandon Bailey

"I think some people were looking for a V-shaped bounce back," meaning a steep decline followed quickly by a sharp ascent, "and that's not going to happen."

But if some companies are cutting back on spending this year, the smarter ones are pursuing growth and innovation through new acquisitions, said Jon Fisher, a University of San Francisco business professor.

Smaller market capitalization means some companies with valuable assets, including new technology and talented workers, can be had for a lower price, noted Fisher, a former Oracle vice president who's also been a serial entrepreneur.

He noted that Oracle CEO Larry Ellison has relentlessly increased revenue by acquiring a steady stream of startups and big companies too.

http://www.mercurynews.com/sv150/ci_12101093

From Forum with Michael Krasney "Wells Fargo is one of the finest run companies in the country"

On Forum with Michael Krasney (October 13, 2008 during the worst of the crisis) I said “Wells Fargo is one of the finest run companies in the country” and I praised the Wells Fargo / Wachovia transaction. This is an hour long program and one can hear more of the specific details here http://www.kqed.org/epArchive/R810130900?itemMD5=7132916702e98b5e2fc059c5cff1b995 The biggest problem we have in this country is propping up make believe businesses with taxpayer money so I do hope the government provides incentives and guarantees, not taxpayer money, to facilitate acquisitions of bad banks by good banks like Wells Fargo.

From Wall Street Journal "Treasury’s Bailout Plan: First, Stop Handing Out Cash"

Jon Fisher: The difference with a guarantee is that public perception won’t be that the money coming in from government coffers will be going into executives pockets, as with the bonus outrage. The other difference between the guarantee and the investment is the model that is followed by the Small Business Administration. They don’t wire money. They guarantee banks to make loans to small businesses. With a guarantee, you have a model where the government could simply guarantee private investment, and there are no onerous covenants and terms associated with the government making a direct investment or taking a control position.There are various techniques of restructuring that are familiar in the business world, none of which are being used by the government. The reason many of these bank entities are insolvent is not that they’re out of cash. It’s that the debt is overtaking the equity in the business. So you can restructure some debt to convert to equity, or you can guarantee the restructuring done by private professional. The good news is that there are some nuggets of classic restructuring that the government could embrace — but it has clouded classic restructuring with all this other stuff that make no sense to business people, which is these direct massive injections of cash. That’s the last thing the government should want to do with taxpayer money — because of the public perception against it, and also because of the raw logistics. The government is now the owner of AIG, but if the government were just a guarantor we could get into the weeds of this and take it off the federal balance sheet. Guarantees are more beneficial to the federal balance sheet than investments, so it could leverage guarantees rather than actually losing cash flows through direct investments.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2009/03/23/treasurys-bailout-plan-first-stop-handing-out-cash/

Another Silicon Valley bust

New speaking engagements at Yale, Kepler's, College of Marin, Brown spreading the word that entrepreneurs should engineer their companies for acquisition. Unfortunately another Silicon Valley bust is coming that (can) be avoided...

Historically dead-on accurate unemployment forecast predicts peak at 10%

Wall Street & Technology
April 03, 2009
Greg MacSweeney

Unemployment May Peak at 10%

A little more than 11 months ago (May 29, to be exact) I wrote a blog that called for 9 percent unemployment by April 2009, when the official numbers are reported in early May of this year. At the time, the forecast received some criticism — mostly from people in denial about the severity and depth of the financial crisis. Well, it looks like 9 percent national unemployment is a reality, but if you read on, there is good news to report as well.

The forecast, based on commentary and analysis from University of San Francisco business professor Jon Fisher, tracked the correlation between decreases in housing starts and rising unemployment. Fisher (and it was all Fisher’s analysis, I’m just the messenger) tracked data back to 1959 and found that as housing starts fall, unemployment rises shortly thereafter. It’s an amazingly simple correlation, but so far has proved to be dead-on accurate.

But now, it seems we are nearing the bottom of the housing start decline, which means national unemployment should stabilize and not surpass 10 percent, according to Fisher, who is also the author of Strategic Entrepreneurism. Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 583,000, according to U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 22.2 percent above the revised January estimate of 477,000, but is 47.3 percent below the revised February 2008 rate of 1,107,000.

The good news in these numbers is the increase in housing start numbers from January to February 2009, indicating that the market may have hit bottom. The March housing start numbers aren’t available yet and, yes, the number could drop again, but indications are the number will at least stabilize and hopefully rise. “If you look at the graph, once the new housing starts hits bottom, it is a classic v-shaped recovery in the new housing starts and then very quickly — not a year later, but a quarter or two later — there is a corresponding cap in national unemployment, which stabilizes and then decreases,” said Fisher in a voicemail message. Finally, some good economic news! (See the chart at the bottom of this blog).

If the model holds true, we may see a period of stabilization and then recovery later this year. There were 663,000 non-farm payroll jobs lost in March and January's job loss tally was revised up to 741,000. Investors were expecting job losses of around 650,000 to 700,000 in March — shocking numbers in any economy, but after a while it seems these huge numbers are numbing. Overall, the national unemployment rate moved up to 8.5 percent and the economy has lost over 5 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007.

“I forecast 5 percent to 9 percent unemployment in 12 months,” added Fisher. “And if we have indeed reached the bottom in new housing starts, then I will also forecast a cap in national unemployment at 10 percent, and then we will start to decrease. This is really message of hope in this whole terrible dialogue.”

http://www.wallstreetandtech.com/blog/archives/2009/04/unemployment_ma.html

Ace Rothstein got it right

I have been doing a lot of media work lately and some friends have asked why…answer:

Ace Rothstein: I'm on TV because I gotta be able to hang around the casino. You understand that. You know that. Come on.
Nicky Santoro: Your XXXXXX XXX. You could have done the food and beverage job without goin' on television. You wanted to go on TV.

President delivers ultimatum to GM, Chrysler

From CBS/Hank Plante: I said "I think the notion of 'too big to fail' is a gigantic rationalization and will be seen months from now, years from now as one of the biggest mistakes this country made http://tinyurl.com/de6e96

Administration demands auto restructuring

WASHINGTON (KGO): Industry analyst and entrepreneur Jon Fisher, an adjunct business professor at the University of San Francisco, says no business is too big to fail, and both companies should file for bankruptcy to address the debt and long-term obligations that are a drag on cash flow, profitability, and most important, viability. President Obama himself mentioned bankruptcy as an option this morning. GM, in particular, is facing huge costs to provide retired employees with health care  an estimated $6 billion annually four and five years from now http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/business&id=6736355#bodyText

Marketplace "unintended consequences"

JON FISHER: We thought that Sarbanes Oxley legislation after the collapse of Enron and Worldcom was largely a good thing. And the unintended consequences are that it's extraordinarily difficult for U.S. companies to complete initial public offerings.

Fisher fears the unintended consequences of regulating new financial services could end up stifling growth.

In Washington, I'm John Dimsdale for Marketplace.
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/03/26/pm_shadow_banking/

Toxic assets at the Improv

Author of several best-selling computer books, Wallace Wang (my co-author), is also a successful standup comic (A&E's "Evening at the Improv", Riviera Comedy Club in Las Vegas) so he’s my first call to get clarity on the Toxic Asset Bail-out as all any of us can do at this point is laugh. The government needs to provide guarantees not any more taxpayer money.

Will NOT hit 10% unemployment IF..

Perhaps you recall my analysis of housing starts and unemployment over the last 50 years. I wanted to wait until the forecast was seen to fruition (May ’08 forecasted national unemployment to 9% May ’09) that I think we all agree is on target. Now, take a look at the fact that all large declines in housing starts have rebounded via V shaped bottom and almost exactly aligned with a cap in unemployment (within few quarters). If we have indeed seen a bottom in housing starts (Feb ’09 confirmed ~20% spike), I think unemployment will peak <10% and then head down on the data!

Image below is from May '08 plot:

AIG bonues spark backlash in Bay Area, Nation

...http://cbs5.com/video/?id=47625@kpix.dayport.com

AIG symmetry

"However, I don't think strengthening Small Business Administration guarantees is the most effective policy response. Rather I think the government, via the SBA and other channels, should be injecting money directly into small businesses to provide at least some symmetry with the AIGs of the world." http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2009/03/luke_warm_is_the_reception.php

My wife Darla should run AIG

Tribute to my wife Darla who owns 2 clothing boutiques in worst retail climate ever http://tinyurl.com/cp6n35

Small business and AIG

I think the Obama administration focusing on small business is critical because an estimated 25M U.S. entrepreneurs responsible for 75% of U.S. employment are woefully underserved by policy response. However, I don't think strengthening Small Business Administration guarantees is the most effective policy response rather I think the government, via the SBA and other channels, should be injecting money directly into small businesses to provide at least some symmetry with the AIGs of the world. The government could give every Entrepreneur $7,500 to protect his business or $10,000 to every unemployed person to start a business with the money AIG has cost the taxpayers so far. Perhaps the biggest problem we face in this country is the propping up of insolvent companies at the expense of everything else.

Entrepreneurs are silver bullet

"In this economy and the effects we are going to experience from this economy, I think entrepreneurs are really the silver bullet," he said. "These are the people who are going to lead us out of this recession. They're gonna create jobs, they're gonna create their own stimulus by putting good products and services into the market and we need to embrace them and protect them." http://tinyurl.com/aq3cs3

Marketplace "Unemployment may be nearing bottom"

Some economists predict at least a 9 percent jobless rate by this summer. Jon Fisher, who teaches business at the University of San Francisco, says that's the result of last years' hits to housing and banking.

Jon Fisher: There is a limit to these things and I think the data we're seeing in unemployment and related data is indicative to past damage in our economy and not that the economy is getting worse and worse. So I think we are nearing a bottom, both in the national unemployment data as well as the severity of the market corrections.

Fisher says now that construction is at a standstill, housing demand will finally out pace supply. And that should create jobs. He thinks stock market investors are overreacting to where we've been, rather than focusing on where we're going.

In Washington I'm John Dimsdale for Marketplace.

AIG is threat to national security

I failed when I didn’t lead a company to profitability and succeeded when I did so I thought I would add that billions of taxpayer dollars propping up insolvent companies is un-American and hundreds of billions of dollars popping up a single insolvent company is a threat to national security.

Guide Your Company to a Great Sale

U.S. News & World report picked up nice review of my book/thesis http://tinyurl.com/de5lta

Koze Beginnings, Tiburon

Darla is following up "Koze", a women's clothing boutique in Tiburon, CA with her 2nd store "Koze Beginnings", a specialty boutique for children coming Spring 2009.
www.getkoze.com

Where is Citi's buyout?

Why can’t the government convene the buyout folks to take Citi private (only costs $10B now) guaranteeing let’s say 80% of the buyout investment risk while sharing in 20% upside in a future sale? This single action sends the correct message (private money coming in) versus the incorrect message (nationalization) causing panic. Bank of America only costs $19B http://cbs5.com/video/?id=46483@kpix.dayport.com

Both GM and Chrysler are living on borrowed billions

From MarketPlace Janet Babin: Either way, University of San Francisco professor Jon Fisher doubts GM or Chrysler can become profitable:

Jon Fisher: I think the only way to truly restructure these companies is to protect them in bankruptcy and fundamentally realign cost structures.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/02/17/gm_deadline/

GM can restructure

http://tinyurl.com/bvk4fr

MarketPlace: The Obama administration decided the problem was bigger

John Dimsdale MarketPlace: The Obama administration decided the problem was bigger than a single car czar..

University of San Francisco Management Professor Jon Fisher agrees a task force will be more effective. But he worries about the implementation.

Jon Fisher: I think the fact they switched gears so close to the deadline is again an indication they don't quite have their story straight.

To see their way out of a downward spiral, Fisher says the companies will have to squeeze more concessions from all sorts of stakeholders -- parts suppliers, workers, bondholders http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/02/16/pm_auto/

BusinessWeek "Should Small Businesses Get a Bailout?"

As told to Jeremy Quittner

JON FISHER
Serial entrepreneur and business professor, University of San Francisco, and co-author, Strategic Entrepreneurism

— If you bail out some, you pretty much have to bail out everyone, so small business deserves its share. Small business contributes roughly three-quarters of the country's payroll. Auto-makers employ only about 3 million people.

— Government is capable of isolating every profitable small business in this country. We should give bailout money to the very good companies that are oppressed by this uncertain economy.

— A good portion of the bailout will be in the form of tax relief. This type of policy will create an unprecedented boom in entrepreneurship.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_62/s0902067774795.htm

CNBC contributor gets it right

This is an interview I did with Jerry Bowyer (CNBC contributor) that really sums up my thesis and thinking more than most things I’ve done http://recordings.talkshoe.com/TC-26344/TS-173681.mp3

You're a long way from Microsoft

From Entrepreneur Magazine: It probably looks like a long way from where you and your company are now to where Bill Gates and Microsoft are. And it's further than you think, says Jon B. Fisher, entrepreneur and author of Strategic Entrepreneurism. That's because IPOs--the traditional way entrepreneurs and venture capitalists fund growth and eventually cash out--have grown increasingly rare. "The model has to change," says Fisher, who has started two companies and, rather than going public, sold them to larger acquirers. Startups today should strive to emulate that model rather than the example set by Microsoft, Google and other entrepreneurial icons, he says. He offers these tips for guiding your company to a great sale:

http://www.entrepreneur.com/magazine/entrepreneur/2009/february/199610.html

Entrepreneur Magazine reviews Strategic Entrepreneurism

Strategic Entrepreneurism.
Small Press Bookwatch • Dec, 2008 •
Strategic Entrepreneurism

Jon B. Fisher, Gerald A. Fisher, Wallace Wang

Select Books
1 Union Square West, Suite 909, New York, NY 10003
9781590791899, $21.95, www.selectbooks.com

There's a lot of advice out there, but which is the right kind to heed? "Strategic Entrepreneurism: Shattering the Start-Up Entrepreneurial Myths" seeks to dispel the myths that society has laid out for the aspiring businessman who's just getting started in the game. Laying out strategies for business men trying to cut through the jungle and climb the mountain that is start up, Fisher offers much sound advice, making "Strategic Entrepreneurism" a must for business people just starting up.

Venture capital industry is in the process of reinventing itself

From SF Chronicle: Jon Fisher, a software industry entrepreneur and business professor at the University of San Francisco, said the drop in merger activity coming on top of the IPO slowdown will force a change in the capital-raising mechanism that has nourished the startup economy.

"The venture capital industry is in the process of reinventing itself," Fisher said.

Housing Turnaround in '09

From TheStreet: Jon Fisher, entrepreneur and business professor at the University of San Francisco, is a shade more optimistic. He says the number of new homes built in the U.S. has begun to bottom, and that pricing stability won't be far behind.

Even if inventories will start the year at elevated levels, it's important to note that the number is declining, said Fisher. Many homes may be selling because they're in distressed situations, but "the point is the inventory is decreasing."

"The longer we stay at this level of productivity, the more damage that signals for the economy," said Fisher.

Start-up relief act of 2009

Obama's campaign proposal to offer zero capital-gains tax to founders/original investors when companies are sold may fuel unprecedented start-up merger activity if executed not unlike the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (exempting most home sales from capital-gains taxes) fueled the housing bubble.

Yahoo layoffs

I commented on ABC this evening that “Google was started after Yahoo! and is now many times the size of Yahoo! and now time for Yahoo! to partner up to survive.” BUT it should be noted that laying off 1,500 saves at most $30M that is <10% $400M cost cutting effort so why drive another stake through the heart of morale for such a small savings especially from a profitable company?

Said bailout is WORKING in WSJ

Fisher, a serial entrepreneur, has been the CEO of three companies in the Valley; he sold the last one to Oracle. He told Wall Street Journal: While I’ve called for a variety of market problems, the data are showing post-bailout package that we are showing stability in the post-bailout markets. The amount of destruction has reached where we’re near a bottom and everything stabilizes. We’ll lose a lot more jobs, but I don’t think we’re going to see things shrink too much further and we’re seeing the start of that today. As for mergers out here in the Valley, we talk about this all the time: if you want to get in ahead of the wave, you have to get in now.

Design your company to become an attractive acquisition candidate

From day one, create and design your company to become an attractive acquisition candidate. Identify the companies that you believe would most benefit from acquiring your company. Of course, you can never control what another company does, but by understanding which company may acquire you and what their own needs may be, you can steer your company in their direction as an acquisition target.

How to save GM

Suppose the federal government spends $14B to buy GM’s 7,000 U.S. auto dealers? This is a fragmented industry so an average of $2M per dealer should do it. Make it $3M per dealer and we’re still under $25B. And, I don’t think it would take long for most of the 7,000 dealers to queue up for a fair market transaction given the current and future market they face.

GM remains the manufacturer and the government becomes the distributor. The government need not benefit from retail markup so the entire GM dealer network is converted to non-profit status with key management lockups for three years in consideration for the acquisitions. Without retail markup, GM can significantly lower the cost of its cars to increase competitive advantage without losing profit or it can keep current prices significantly increasing profit.

The government holds the dealerships in trust for three years until GM can buy them back or the government sells the dealerships to Toyota if GM can’t right itself.

This plan enables Main Street to directly benefit from government funds and it clearly delineates a bailout partnership between GM and the government for accountability. Perhaps, customer service also improves and perhaps Wayne Huizenga is appointed Auto Czar and special assistant to the President.

Columbia to Carnegie to recovery

In September, I explained to students at Columbia Business School that starting a company was like pushing a rock up a hill given the current economic climate. Tomorrow, ten elite schools later, I will confirm to students at Carnegie Mellon Silicon Valley campus that now is the perfect time to start a company because markets have bottomed. I don’t think equities markets will test Oct 10th lows and I don’t think we will ever build fewer homes than we did in September. The bottom line is we have a glimpse of housing price stability and the government has stabilized key financial institutions that are the keys to recovery. The current discussion of automotive and other bailouts are irrelevant. Nothing can save GM so let’s focus on sectors that are still great in this country like technology, biotechnology and so many others.

It’s No Time to Forget About Innovation from New York Times

“Innovation has to be embedded in the daily operation, in the entire work force,” says Jon Fisher, a business professor, serial entrepreneur, and author of “Strategic Entrepreneurism,” which advocates building a start-up’s business from the beginning with an eye toward selling the company. “A large acquirer’s interest in a start-up or smaller company is binary in nature: They either want you or they don’t, based on the innovation you have to offer. The best way to foster innovation is to create something, put it to the test, build a good company and then get it under the umbrella of a world-renowned company to move it forward.”

Janet Rae-Dupree writes about science and emerging technology in Silicon Valley. (New York Times)

From Wall Street Journal

Jon Fisher, Adjunct Professor of Business at University of San Francisco

Fisher, a serial entrepreneur, has been the CEO of three companies in the Valley; he sold the last one to Oracle. He told WSJ: While I’ve called for a variety of market problems, the data are showing post-bailout package that we are showing stability in the post-bailout markets. The amount of destruction has reached where we’re near a bottom and everything stabilizes. We’ll lose a lot more jobs, but I don’t think we’re going to see things shrink too much further and we’re seeing the start of that today. As for mergers out here in the Valley, we talk about this all the time: if you want to get in ahead of the wave, you have to get in now.

See comments from Ben Bernanke, Bob Doll, vice chairman, BlackRock, Fitch Ratings, Standard & Poor’s, Dennis Lockhart,President, Atlanta Federal Reserve and George W. Bush, President in this piece as well http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/10/20/experts-the-bailout-worked-we-think-so-far/

NewsHour With Jim Lehrer

SPENCER MICHELS: The concept that the gloomy economic news may not hit Silicon Valley hard is fairly widespread. Despite drops in high-tech stocks, that's still what many Valley spokesmen are saying publicly.
JON FISHER, University of San Francisco: I think they're delusional.
SPENCER MICHELS: Jon Fisher, who has run three of his own startups, sees big trouble ahead. He now teaches business at the University of San Francisco.
JON FISHER: I don't think Silicon Valley is insulated. I think, fundamentally, the way that Silicon Valley has traditionally made money, in the form of selling stock to the public in an initial public offering, or in the form of companies merging, has changed due to a lack of access to capital.
For example, in last quarter, there wasn't a single venture capital-led initial public offering.
SPENCER MICHELS: Even with financing from venture capitalists, Fisher says Silicon Valley still depends on credit.
JON FISHER: In the lifecycle of a startup company, credit, in the form of debt financing to buy equipment, to sometimes meet payroll -- whatever the circumstance may be -- plays a critical role. All of these businesses -- startup, venture capital, Silicon Valley alike -- need access to credit to survive.

I am anti-bailout

From San Francisco Chronicle that got it right:

Jon Fisher, software entrepreneur and business professor at University of San Francisco: I am anti-bailout. At the same time we are considering this $700 billion financial sector bailout, Congress approved $25 billion in financial aid to the auto makers and it got very little attention.

Our biggest problem in this country is that we prop up companies that do not deserve to be companies. We should have some sort of a plan to revive the financial markets, but it should not involve having the government take over companies.

Government should continue to work behind the scenes to encourage the stronger financial institutions to take the weak companies out of the field. We should let free market forces blow the non-performers away.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/01/MNU713921L.DTL&type=printable

Tom Perkins from the deck

25 MILLION Entrepreneurs STRANDED!!

New York Times: In Strategic Entrepreneurism™, Jon Fisher provides timely answers for 25 million entrepreneurs left without a path to capitalization. Entrepreneurs will learn how to navigate their way to success using the non-IPO Strategic Entrepreneurism method.
http://www.nytimes.com/pages/business/index.html

Strategic Entrepreneurism Book Passage 16th

From Marin IJ: Tiburon resident Jon Fisher will talk about his book "Strategic Entrepreneurism" at Book Passage in Corte Madera at 7 p.m. Tuesday. The book focuses on designing a business that can be acquired by a larger one. Fisher is the former CEO of Bharosa Inc., a provider of software that helps combat identity theft and fraud. The company was acquired by Oracle Corp. in July 2007.

Strategic Entrepreneurism

From SF Chron: Jon Fisher, Gerald Fisher, Wallace Wang Discuss "Strategic Entrepreneurism." 7 p.m. Book Passage, 51 Tamal Vista Blvd., Corte Madera. (415) 927-0960.

Strategic Entrepreneurism (TM) launches

Schawlow at Stanford

What’s especially important to me is my family life, and that includes being close to my father, a co-author of Strategic Entrepreneurism (TM), who studied under Dr. Arthur Schlow at Stanford. Dr. Schlow invented the laser and won the Nobel Prize. Back in the 60s during the height of the Vietnam War, Dr. Schlow wrote a letter to the United States government confirming that my father would be of more service to this country as a physicist than as a soldier. Perhaps I owe my life to one of the world’s greatest entrepreneurs and I certainly intend to spend the rest of my life trying to become one.

Dow to test July 15

I believe odds that DOW < July 15 low are >90% and odds that we test this week are >50% 15-Jul-08 11,050.80 11,201.67 10,731.96 10,962.54 7,363,640,000 10,962.54

Book tour posted on CNBC

Some highlights from Jon Fisher's book tour are listed below: Oct 24 MIT/Stanford VLAB Emerging Business lecture Sept 30, 2008 On-campus lecture at Georgetown University Sept 25, 2008 On-campus lecture at Brown University Sept 23, 2008 On-campus lecture at Columbia University Sept 22, 2008 On-campus lecture at Vassar College
www.cnbc.com

Entrepreneur to Colleagues, "Forget IPO and Go for Acquisition"

From Marketwatch: "While every entrepreneur may dream of creating the next Google, the reality is that most start-ups fail precisely because they're trying to become the next big name success," says Fisher, who, in addition to being a entrepreneur and seasoned motivational speaker, is also a lecturer at University of San Francisco's School of Business and the recipient of Ernst & Young's coveted "Entrepreneur of the Year" award.
http://www.marketwatch.com/

Strategic Entrepreneurism Book pre-launches on Amazon today

Amazon http://tinyurl.com/58bw2c

Unemployment spiking for another year

From San Francisco Chronicle: "There are some real macro indicators that point to unemployment spiking," said Jon Fisher, a lecturer in economics at the University of San Francisco School of Business and Management. "This cycle will last for at least another year."
www.sfgate.com

Equity lines

From CBS News: USF professor Jon Fisher “It’s ironic because equity lines made possible by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae bailed us out of the last correction, equity in our homes, and now the government is extending new equity lines to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae themselves in an attempt to bail us out of the current correction..."
http://cbs5.com/business/congress.housing.bill.2.778663.html

Credibility of information we’re receiving

From NBC news: “I think we should be concerned about our bank. Unfortunately, this concern isn’t just a function of the financial condition of our bank but of the credibility of information we’re receiving from the U.S. government and the financial services industry. On Friday during daylight we hear everything is ok and then under cover of darkness over the weekend we hear that there is a bailout or bankruptcy. This is an untenable situation and I think more toxic to the economy and our bank than inflation, the price of oil or over four million questionable if not fraudulent mortgages in the system” said Jon Fisher professor of business at the University of San Francisco.

I'm not sure it's a meltdown

From ABC News Channel 7: “I’m not sure it’s a meltdown…the Fed is currently targeting roughly 90 banks for possible bailout and we have been through this before. However, when some of deposits are insured and some aren't who can blame someone for queueing up for thing in the morning to protect one's assets?" said USF professor of business Jon Fisher
http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/business&id=6263704

Fixing one problem tends to exacerbate the other

From NBC news: “I think this particular correction is different from past corrections because of the number of problems we’re facing simultaneously and, within this problem set, fixing one problem tends to exacerbate the other” said University of San Francisco business professor Jon Fisher.

The question that emboldens Microsoft and makes Yahoo tremble

From SF Chronicle: Former software company executive Jon Fisher, who sold his last startup to Oracle and is now an adjunct professor at the University of San Francisco, said Yahoo had already been lagging its rival, Google, before the merger-melodrama began and has since been weakened by a shareholder revolt and employee attrition.

"It's very difficult to run a good business during a merger process," said Fisher, adding the question that emboldens Microsoft and makes Yahoo tremble: "What are its stand-alone prospects?"
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/02/BU6J11IUNE.DTL

Silicon Valley hotshots should quit swinging for the fences

From SF Chronicle: Jon Fisher, a software industry entrepreneur who sold his last, no-name startup to Oracle Corp., said there is indeed less glory in selling a startup whose technology ends up being subsumed into a larger company - but business has to follow the money.

"The opportunities to build the next Genentech or Google are going away," said Fisher, a lecturer at University of San Francisco, who believes the future of innovation in Silicon Valley is already revealed in the several-year trend away from IPOs and toward mergers.

"Once the stratospheric returns of the stock market start to go away, the entrepreneur has to shift gears and sculpt a startup from the beginning with a particular acquirer's needs in mind," said Fisher, who calls this concept strategic entrepreneurism.

In other words, Silicon Valley hotshots should quit swinging for the fences and instead send a sharp line drive to the opposite field - or just bunt.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/06/30/BUKK11HKT5.DTL

Solution to no IPOS in Q2? Strategic Entrepreneurism

In the second quarter of this year not a single company backed by venture capitalists has gone public. It is the first time that has happened since 1978, according to a venture capital industry group reported in NYTimes. Solution: Strategic Entreprenurism http://www.sandhill.com/opinion/editorial.php?id=193

Market correction involves half-dozen points of failure

From ABC News Ch7: USF School of Business professor, Jon Fisher, believes this latest correction is worse than the one in 2000 and 2001.

"The last correction involved simply the implosion of one sector, which was the technology/dot-coms, and it was subsequently offset by equity in housing. This particular correction involves a half-dozen points of failure including unemployment, inflation, oil, insurance (including AMBAC/MBIA), of course the housing liquidity crunch and a general lack of confidence" said Fisher. http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/business&id=6230543

Conversation quickly turned back to baseball

From Wall Street & Technology: When the conversation at a BBQ this weekend shifted from the heat wave, Big Brown and the woeful Mets to the economy, I mentioned Fisher's 9 percent unemployment prediction to a banker friend. "Those are European unemployment numbers," he cracked. But then he quickly looked serious and asked, "But do you think it could go that high?" I mentioned Fisher's research and the patterns in the data that show a correlation between housing-start drops and increases in unemployment in 1968, 1974, 1978, 1981 and 1985. Gulp. Conversation quickly turned back to baseball.
http://www.wallstreetandtech.com/

Strategic Entrepreneurism in the New Economy

From Sandhill.com : Designing a startup for acquisition means software entrepreneurs must follow a new path to success http://www.sandhill.com/opinion/editorial.php?id=193

They anticipate more unemployment

That, said Jon Fisher, professor of business and economics from the University of San Francisco, "is a sign that unemployment will come in higher." La Opinión Newspaper http://tinyurl.com/6dwa9e

Entrepreneur turned stock market bear

From VentureBeat: Entrepreneur turned stock market bear Jon Fisher says unemployment will rise...http://venturebeat.com/

Drop in Housing Starts Indicates Unemployment Is Headed to 9%

From Wall Street & Technology: Where is the economy headed? Some “experts” say the economy is ready to rebound, after a short contraction. Others think that the economy is just at the beginning of a long and painful recession. However, the truth may be hidden in data that tracks housing starts, according to University of San Francisco business professor Jon Fisher, who previously founded and sold his online authentication company Bharosa to Oracle. Fisher contends the unemployment rate may be headed to 9 percent.Fisher says that history shows that as the number of new housing starts drops, the unemployment rate rises shortly thereafter. After analyzing new housing start data, in the next 12 months, Fisher says the U.S. could see unemployment rates as high as 9 percent, a rate not seen since 1983
http://www.wallstreetandtech.com/blog/archives/2008/05/unemployment_ho.html

Vacation

Darla, Koze, Oracle, Book, Class, Lectures do not leave a lot of time for vacations. Here’s our first in a few years.

Strategic Entrepreneurism

Entrepreneurs setting up businesses for future acquisition must begin by strategically selecting customers who can attract potential acquirers. They must also strategically consider every other aspect of the start-up--from its team to its technology, its concepts to its contracts--not just for its stand-alone business value but for its
attractiveness to an acquirer.

In an era when fewer enterprise software companies control more share than ever before, this will be the road open to start-ups.

Emphasis Search

From VentureBeat: The $1 million seed round was led by Royal Wulff Ventures. Robert E. Cook of Royal Wulff is joining Emphasis Search’s board, as are Louis J. Lavigne, Jr. (formerly chief financial officer at Genetech) and Jon B. Fisher (formerly vice president of product management at Oracle). Fisher’s security startup Bharosa was acquired by Oracle last June, and he says Oracle or other big tech companies may take a similar interest in Emphasis Search.

Back to the well

From LATimes: "Tens of millions of dollars are put into them, but they aren't sustainable and they can't continue to go back to the well," said Jon Fisher, an entrepreneur who sold his most recent company, Bharosa, to Oracle Corp. in July.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-shakeout7apr07,0,4520856.story

The white line is new housing starts /the red line is unemployment. (1959-current). Look at the last white line. Get ready for the next red line.

Investment Banking Crisis Will Freeze Silicon Valley M&A Deals

From SiliconValleyWatcher:

Jon Fisher, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur who sold his company Bharosa to Oracle last year, says the chilling effect from the fallout from the investment banking sector will severely impact many startups.

"The investment banks broker huge numbers of M&A deals. This crisis means that over the next few quarters there will be many companies caught in the middle, unable to complete M&A deals,"

http://www.siliconvalleywatcher.com/mt/archives/2008/03/investment_bank.php

Start-ups lose their sizzle

From Mercury News:

"I'd hate to be in the middle of a deal and have them go under," said Jon Fisher, former chief executive of Bharosa, the fraud prevention company that Oracle bought last year.

Fisher predicts a rise in start-up bankruptcies in the next two quarters, triggered by the economic downturn. He noted that Pay by Touch, a San Francisco biometric technology start-up with a reported $300 million in funding from hedge funds and other investors, declared bankruptcy in December.

"The venture capital guys know how to cut their losses," Fisher said. "Just like the buyers of homes that are underwater, they may just abandon ship." http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_8747756

Questions

From PCWorld: Jon Fisher, whose firm, Bharosa (acquired by Oracle last year), develops questions for companies to use, says knowledge-based authentication adds a step for account access. "Phishing both those pieces of information is fairly sophisticated."
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,143712/article.html

Are you positive about the future?

From KTVU Channel 2:

Ross McGowan, host KTVU “Mornings on 2”: Are you positive about the future –the near future?

Jon Fisher: No. I’m not. The market is rallying today and, again, good for Bear and some of these other institutions but what Bear is doing all of the other investment banks are doing. What some of the largest U.S. banks are doing other U.S. banks have been doing and I think we have a systemic problem in the financial services industry and I think we should start looking to guys like John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, who writes about this battle of the soul of capitalism that we’re experiencing. The financial services companies have too much leverage and too much power in this economy and I think that has to be checked.

Fear and doubt

From SF Chronicle: "I'm on the board of one startup that is closing a $1 million financing March 31 and we're making certain to get in touch with all the investors to ensure an orderly closing," said Jon Fisher, a serial entrepreneur who recently sold a software startup to Oracle Corp. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/03/17/BUFOVLGLT.DTL

Even more worrisome

From Industry Standard: An even more worrisome perspective was provided by Jon Fisher, the former CEO of Bharosa, Inc. which was sold to Oracle last year. Mr. Fisher offered that "the unprecedented collapse of Bear Stearns will contribute to a wave of startup bankruptcies and failed mergers in the next few quarters. . . . I'm especially concerned about the employees and investors represented by Bear Stearns in merger transactions. This is a terrible thing to have happen in the middle of a deal." http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/03/17/impact-bear-stearns-collapse-entrepreneurs

Trying to watch out for their interests

From VentureBeat: Jon Fisher, a local entrepreneur who sold his security software company, Bharosa, Inc, to Oracle last year (our coverage), has been following the financial woes in recent months — he’s a board member for several start-ups, and is trying to watch out for their interests. He predicts a “massive wave” of start-up technology company bankruptcies in the next quarters, as they run out of funding, struggle to make money and fail to find acquirers. On the other hand, some think that if companies can make it through the next several months, they’ll be especially well positioned for the ensuing economic recovery, in part because of reduced competition. http://venturebeat.com/

Now that Fed is out of moves

See post Sunday, January 27, 2008 “Two Black Monday slots left before Super Tuesday” for the Super Tuesday bloodbath prediction.

See Thursday, February 21, 2008 “Vasco and international banks”for the European Bank bloodbath prediction.

See Friday, March 7, 2008 ”Bad Moon” for the single biggest mkt drop in awhile prediction (actually took 2 days) before FED based rally.

Now that the Fed is out of moves and getting creative why not give the 25M US entrepreneurs a $100B that would create 1M new high paying jobs?

Consummate pro

Fisher said he's meeting with business people in California about a Bloomberg candidacy, and he emailed later to tell me, “Michael Bloomberg may not be as photogenic, he may not have as much star power but at the end of the day he's a consummate professional who we desperately need in the White House.”

http://www.observer.com/2008/bloomberg-supporter-says-theres-plenty-time

Rallying troops

The former Bharosa CEO is not the only Silicon Valley type with a keen interest in this year's presidential election. Cisco CEO John Chambers is an adviser on John McCain's presidential bid, prompting speculation that he himself may one day make the leap from California to Capitol.

http://www.byteandswitch.com/blog.asp?blog_sectionid=249&doc_id=145109&WT.svl=blogticker

High-Tech Campaign Is Eyed If Bloomberg Enters Race

By GRACE RAUH
Staff Reporter of the Sun
February 4, 2008

"We are connecting the dots and the infrastructure, if you will, to be prepared to move much more quickly than an ordinary campaign," Mr. Fisher said in a telephone interview with The New York Sun yesterday.

http://www.nysun.com/article/70648

WSJ: Bloomberg Flirtation Sets Executive Hearts Aflutter

By BEN CASSELMAN
January 18, 2008;

Mr. Bloomberg's support goes beyond New York. Jon Fisher, a 35-year-old technology entrepreneur in Tiburon, Calif., said Mr. Bloomberg's background appeals to him. "Business experience, and specifically this kind of entrepreneurial business experience, is exactly the skill set we need in a president," said Mr. Fisher, who sold his most recent venture, Bharosa, to technology giant Oracle Corp. last year.

Mr. Fisher, a Democrat, is inviting others who have sold companies to Oracle to a meeting in Tiburon at the end of the month. The goal, Mr. Fisher said, is to recruit people willing to dedicate time and effort to a Bloomberg campaign. (Mr. Bloomberg would presumably fund his campaign himself, making fund-raising unnecessary.)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120062283942299587.html

Fraud Detection

The very nature of identity and access management is changing thanks to enterprise fraud detection. In less than 20 milliseconds, users are authenticated by device and tendencies, authentication decisions and rules are processed and disparate systems and data are scored. And, if done correctly, less than 1% users see the difference...